What’s Next for the Economy

Simple question: How’s the economy doing?

Answer: It’s complicated.

After the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates again (but less than last time) and all the market volatility, it’s a good time to talk about the economy. 1

Inflation has been falling since summer

Inflation fell for the sixth straight month in December, bolstering evidence that it may have peaked last June at 9.1%. 2

However, inflation is still very high, and its impact is being felt across the economy.

The jobs market is still very strong

The latest January jobs report was a blowout, coming in ahead of the data that Fed economists expected. The economy added over 500,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since 1969. 3

You can see in the chart above that most industries are still actively hiring, suggesting that Fed actions still haven’t slowed the desire for workers. 4

The economy shrugged off recession worries in Q4

Despite all the recession doom and gloom, the economy grew 2.9% in the last three months of 2022. 5

However, consumer spending weakened slightly, indicating that Americans might be trimming expenses. Since consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic growth in the U.S., it’s a potential warning sign I’m keeping tabs on.

I see a few takeaways about the current state of the economy

But, before I dive into them, I want to point out two important caveats about economic data:

1. Much of the initial data we see in the headlines is based on incomplete estimates that get revised later as more data is processed. These big data bureaus try to balance releasing data quickly enough to be useful and getting the complete picture.
2. Data is often impacted by seasonal trends that can cause spikes or “noise” in the data. That’s why we look for trends rather than single data points.

Here’s what I see:

Despite tech layoffs and gloomy headlines, many sectors seem to still be going strong, job-wise.

Interest rate hikes aren’t slowing down growth as much as the Fed hoped, though inflation is definitely showing a downward trend.

While recession fears are definitely real and based on solid concerns, it doesn’t look like the economy has hit the skids yet.

What does all this mean for future Fed interest rate moves?

That’s the trillion-dollar question, isn’t it?

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’ll give it a shot.

It’s possible that more interest rate hikes are coming.

I think folks expecting a quick pivot away from increases are going to be disappointed.

But any future rate hikes may be smaller and slower paced as the Fed takes stock of what the data is showing and works to keep us out of a recession.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has admitted that inflation has begun to fall but he wants to see “substantially more evidence” of a declining trend before changing policy. 1

With inflation still three times above the Fed’s 2% target, there’s still a long way to go before we’re out of the woods and back on the path. 2

What could happen with markets?

I expect a lot of volatility ahead as markets digest every shred of information about the economy and the direction of interest rate policy.

I don’t have a crystal ball here, either, but I think it’ll be a rocky spring. So, I’m watching markets, I’m reading analyses and reports, and I’m looking for opportunities.

Best,

Barry

Sources:

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed-rate-decision-february-2023-quarter-point-hike.html
2. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/feds-kashkari-says-hes-sticking-54-rate-hike-view-after-surprising-jobs-report-2023-02-07/
4. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-by-industry-monthly-changes.htm
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/gdp-q4-2022-us-gdp-rose-2point9percent-in-the-fourth-quarter-more-than-expected-even-as-recession-fears-loom.html

Boomfish Wealth Group, LLC, DBA Wealth With No Regrets®, is registered as an investment adviser and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Content should not be viewed as personalized investment type of advice. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Tax, legal, and estate planning information is general in nature. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Any references to protection benefits generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investment products. Insurance and annuity product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Neither Boomfish Wealth Group, LLC, nor Wealth With No Regrets® is engaged in the practice of law or accounting. Content prepared by Snappy Kraken. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
We are an independent financial services firm helping individuals create retirement strategies using a variety of insurance and investment products to custom suit their needs and objectives This material is intended to provide general information to help you understand basic financial planning strategies and should not be construed as financial advice. All investments are subject to risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. The information contained in this material is believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed; it is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions. It is important that you do not use this information to request, authorize or effect the purchase or sale of any security, to send fund transfer instructions, or to effect any other transactions. Any such request, orders, or instructions that you send will not be accepted and will not be processed.

_____________________________________________________________________________