Will a DC shutdown disrupt your financial future?

September 23, 2025

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With a potential government shutdown looming on Sept. 30, 1 you may be wondering how this could affect your personal finances and retirement planning.

 

SHUTDOWNS — SOME HISTORY

 

  • Shutdowns aren’t new. More than 20 have occurred since 1976. The longest shutdown was our last one, lasting 35 days starting Dec. 21, 2018. 2
  • Market reactions are mixed. Markets have risen and fallen about evenly during shutdowns. In the seven shutdowns that lasted 10 days or more, the S&P 500 fell four times within the shutdown period and rose three times. 2

 

SHUTDOWNS — WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS?

 

Critical federal services will likely continue 1 :
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • U.S. Postal Service
  • Air traffic control

 

Disrupted services 1 :
  • National parks and museums may close
  • Possible furloughs for some federal employees
  • Delays in benefit verification and tax refunds

 

Economic effects:
  • The lead-up to the shutdown can be volatile,3 longer shutdowns have temporarily slowed economic growth, 2 but impacts have historically faded as government re-opened.3

 

FOCUS ON WHAT YOU CAN CONTROL

What matters most during times like this is not attempting to predict the politics and markets during major news stories, but to maintain a disciplined, long-term approach to your investments.

Navigating these events with focus is key. If you’re not confident in the ability of your financial strategy to weather this type of uncertainty, let’s talk. I always offer a call to discuss your situation and talk about the options you may have to preserve your hard-earned savings and protect the retirement lifestyle you’ve planned for.


Warmly,

Barry

Sources:
1 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Sept. 16, 2025. “Government Shutdowns Q&A: Everything You Should Know.” https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know#:~:text=Fiscal%20Year%20(FY)%202025%20will,a%20government%20shutdown%20will%20occur. Accessed Sept. 22, 2025.
2 Vanguard. Dec. 20, 2024. “Staying the course during a government shutdown.” https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/staying-the-course-during-a-government-shutdown.html. Accessed Sept. 22, 2025.
3 Brian Sozzi. Yahoo! Finance. Sept. 25, 2023. “The worst government shutdowns and the stock market: What history shows usually happens.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-worst-government-shutdowns-and-the-stock-market-what-history-shows-usually-happens-142728907.html. Accessed Sept. 22, 2025.

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“Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.”
— Ronald Reagan

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